after yet another weekend of listening to political pundits etc banging on about ‘volatility of the electorate”…’too hard to call’ etc etc..and all nodding in unison as they rehash what we already know, and dazzle us with the wisdom afforded by hindsight..i’ve decided to make a call on the election result..and why i’ve come to these conclusions..(y’can either be right or wrong..eh..?)
national:..national have peaked..it is all downhill for them from here…
fear of being dragged into the iraq mess…
fear of retaliatory bombings…
a desire to retain our nuclear-free policy..
a backlash against the over-selling of nationals’ tax policy..
fear of just what slashing/burning/borrowing national would do to pay for their tax policies..
revived memories of the slashing and burning of the national govts of the 90’s
revived memories of tau henare and ilk….
the way don ‘jandals’ brash flip-flops all over the place…and the perception he would be bushs’ lap-dog..and at the first whistle would lead us into that nasty little war..
because brash would hand the environment back to the wide-boys in sharp suits/with gold-plated tooth-picks..by emasculating the resources managment act….(“back to the past..with national..”<< rejected national election slogan..) because the all important leaders debates (they will have their biggest audiences ever....) will be a reprise of questiontime in parliament.. i've live-blogged a few questiontimes..and the enduring impression i take away is clark and cullen putting on their dancing shoes and doing the tango on the prostrate bodies of brash/brownlee/key/etc..the rest of new zealand wiil see this during the debates.. the fact that national is faction riven..and the actites are in the ascendancy..the moderate middleground national party is awaiting the inevitable fall of their more doctrinaire/far-fight opponents within the party.. (let us not forget that now national party leader don brash was introduced to an act party conference as 'the ninth act mp'..) it is important to note this collapse of national party support is the foundation stone of my thesis/predictions..and this collapse will, of course, have a flow-through effect to the dynamics of the voting for the other parties.. and perhaps the party that will most profit from nationals' fading fortunes will be their erstwhile partner act.. act: act will get back into parliament because those on the right will want to retrieve what they can from the collapse of their hopes of a centre-right government.. (personally..i think they deserve to be there..if only because national fail/have failed miserably in their role as a functioning opposition party..) new zealand first... peters will not reach double figures...for the following reason..(which is also the reason peters' support has plunged in the latest polling..a drop all the pundits seem at a loss to explain...they usually run that 'volatility' line..eh..?) peters' support is made up of elderly former national and labour supporters.. in the past peters' has been able to run the scam that had former labour voters supporting him because they believed he would go with labour.. depite peters' best efforts..that scam is not working this time out..and the penny has dropped for former hard-core/intergenerational labour voters that a vote for peters is a vote for the dreaded/hated tories.. for this reason alone peters will only make single figures.. the greens: the greens will crack 10% for the following reasons.. high profile (zimbabwe/sect 59 etc.) they aren't as 'scary' as they used to be..they are now a part of the political landcape/fixtures...and will collect party votes from all over the political spectrum... they are a far more acceptable coalition partner for labour than nz first.. the collapse of the national vote will mean green labourites in particular will be able to tick green and know they will still be getting the end result they want..the same applys for national party supporters who have a green tinge about them and want to retrieve something from the colapse of national... the maori party..will do well..(5-7 seats) and will likely be part of a lab/grn/maori party coalition.. labour..because of the collapse of national support will not be able to demand that urgent support from their followers..therefor they will retain their core vote..but could end up with less than if the nat/lab race was kneck and kneck..(instead of kneck and butt...) labour will form the next govt with the support of the greens and the maori party.. united future... they will either only get dunne back in..or they may be able to ride a morals/morality wavelet on the back of that national party collapse.. (some have posited a lab/grn/united mix..i don't think so..what about dunnes' implacable opposition to any reforms of the laws on cannabis..?) so..that's how i reckon it's all going to pan out.. (i'll revisit this, post-election..)