this is lining up to be one of the most interesting elections ever.
political junkies like myself are already salivating.
we have national and act squaring off in tamaki and epsom.
act are desperate for an electorate seat, so will be forced to have a crack at either or both.
and if national don’t come to an accomodation with act, it’ll be all on.
(which they won’t; saner heads in that party will prevail over those with only the immediate future in mind. there is no way national will give up one or both of their safe seats, possibly forever.)
so that’s all going to turn even uglier between act and national further down the track.
and of course, should act and national stand against each other, this would split the vote, and possibly allow labour to take one or both of what were true blue seats. cor! (they came close in tamaki last time).
and given that the greens won’t stand for the coromandel electorate this time out; their former splitting of that vote has gone, which means that seat should also go labours way.
you also have national gazing around, desperately looking for traction. (no matter how sticky things are for labour at the moment, national is not gaining from their woes).
then you have the greens looking good. they’ll get their core vote; the former alliance voters (they have forgotten and forgiven, sort of); disaffected greenies/lefties in labour will toss them their party vote; and some party votes will also come from those closeted greens in national.
then you have the destys and dunnes mob squabbling over the fundamentalist christian(?) vote.
and the maori party are going to surprise all with the size of the vote they get. i think they will sweep the maori seats and get a decent list vote. (former alliance supporters could also go here; it’s either here or to the greens, or not voting, for them).
tauranga will be interesting. peters will likely slip back in in a cliffhanger; or not. (his recent outburst had others turning away in disgust, but possibly resonated with his tauranga support base; hard to tell at this stage).
nz first could do ok from the disintergration of support for national.
so all in all, if i were helen clarke, i’d call the election for the end of may. the opposition is in dissaray and falling on each other. the current upsets could be commission of enquireied out of the way.
get it all over and done with before serious winter sets in. (she could possibly count on a groundswell of gratitude for just that).
aye, interesting times.