What’s gonna happen?
and the First Annual “How The F##k Did They Get There And What The F##k Are They Doing?” Awards
(written on 30/12/04)
i reckon the elections are close enough to start making predictions, so here goes.
and of course, we are proud to present the first annual “How the F##k did they get there and what the F##k are they doing?” awards.
These awards are unique in that they are democratic in nature. Every political party gets one; and we are today announcing a design competition as to the actual form and format of the award.
extreme scatology will be laughed at but most probably wont make it much further than that. humour will be rewarded.
They are dog tucker; ideologically they are bankrupt and floundering. A party of the remnants of yesterdays men. National is possibly facing it’s sunset years and trying to, (along with act), sustain itself on the fag end of rogernomics.
National are increasingly showing themselves as unable to regain the ground stolen out from under them by clarke and act.
The foray into racial division and diversion acted out at orewa worked in that it stoked the dark underbelly of racism existing in new zealand, but clarke has already done the job on maori so national will have difficulty in gaining any more than a slight increase in their present ratings in the long term.
national will come nowhere near being able to form a coalition, let alone, in a best case scenario, grab back more than a slight amount of the gap between the two main parties.It’s more than likely they will lose out to labour and the minor parties and possibly slide into irrelevancy.
brash seems lost; having forgone the certainties of the reserve bank he’s just been slipping and sliding in the world of parliamentary politics,(he seemed more surprised than anyone else at the reaction to the orewa speech); anointed before his time.
to his credit, brash dosen’t seem to know how to play the game, isn’t a good actor, can’t sling the requisite bullshit convincingly enough.
brash is forever lodged in the mind of the public as that strange man who tells everyone he meets his wife is from singapore, and who fusses over his ‘smalls’.
whomsoever of his advisors recommended brash do that unfortunate documentary should have already been taken outside and shot. (mind you, maybe then he’d have no-one).
during the campaign brash will get into a bit of beneficiary bashing, which always goes down well in the heartland, and he may get a bit of traction doing that. but that schtick belongs to act. Brash and Hide/newman will end up in the unedifying position of trying to outdo each other in the beneficiary bashing stakes.
They are hardly ones to be gazed upon as our next great leaders.
Never mind, brash’ll be tossed out of his leadership role after the election, (in that cheerful yet unforgiving ritual national have developed into a fine art), and hide might be out of the game altogether, but then again, just might scrape back into parliament.(see act)
national mp of the year has to be john “what’s his name?”.” you know the finance guy”, the one some are pointing to with a faint air of desperation as the next saviour of national. he could well be a saviour of sorts, but not this time around.
National’s recipient of the first annual How the F###k did he get there and what the f###k is he doing? award must be Brownlee; an exercise in pomposity and incompetence on show at every public outing. That he is deputy leader is a clear demonstration of the directionless nature of and paucity of talent in national.
a savior and successor he ain’t.
close runner-up for the award has to be brash, for all the obvious reasons.
the concern for clarke, (and make no bones about it, helen and her coterie of advisers are labour, for the moment), is that national being dog tucker is good news for the minor parties and bad news for labour.
votes that would have gone to national if the race was closer go to the smaller parties, making them more uppity, and labour bleeds from those who feel more relaxed about giving their support to their minor party of choice, even if in part as a check and balance against real and perceived arrogance on the part of labour.
cullen will throw lollies in the budget before the election. (after all, one lesson labour has learn’t is that every vote counts).
labour will campaign on it’s record and the economy, and the lack of a credible opposition party; and the only question will be who will be their coalition partner/partners.
clarke and coterie may dream of ruling alone, but that’s what that is, a dream.
labours mp of the year has to be clarke. she is omniscient, in a decidedly spooky sort of way. her grip on power is total. cullen is left to plow his own furrow, but everyone else is pretty much under the knuckle.
There’s a few contenders for labours first annual How the F##k did they get there and what the F##k are they doing? award, with horomia and samuels both thundering up the home straight.
but the award goes to steve mahary. Not because he’s an idiot (which he isn’t), but because he’s been the public face of labours’ selling out of one of it’s traditional constituencies, the poor.
Mahary has been the one spouting the weasel words; the apologist, (along with clark), for the moral bankruptcy of labour.
Somehow a six billion dollar surplus and a third of our children living in poverty, (and this under the care of a supposedly caring social democrat sort of party?), just does not compute.
despite languishing way below the margin of error and being written off by a lot of commentators i reckon act might just scrape back in.
the collapse of national means that many on the right of that party will give their party vote to act, so as to have more of a voice in parliament, if for nothing else.
and act, in the absence of national, has been fufilling one of the oppositions traditional roles, that of scandal buster. Maybe they need to stay for that reason.
hide would have to be act’s polly of the year. he finally got the chalice, is smiling bravely through the ritualistic guttings in the polls, and gets an honourable mention for his website/journal.
douglas gets the first annual “How the F##k did they get there and what the F##k are they doing?” award for act for spitting the dummy, picking up his ball (and a bunch of act voters), and going home to sulk. Coddington gets an honourable mention for her quaint courtship rituals, and newman for the odd petulant mewl.
New Zealand First
Peters has been batting his eyes furiously at clarke, knowing she’s his only option. but he’s deluding himself if he thinks clarke will have a bar of the idea of going into a coalition with new zealand first. she’s learnt the lessons of history. this time out the best peters can hope for is to be used as a coalition negotiating tool/threat. and history will uncomfortably repeat on him, this time as the used, not the user.
once again, the fight for tauranga will be close.
peters gets their polly of the year award just because he is new zealand first, and he will have to pick up the other award because no other new zealand first mp comes to mind.
As with act, (able to perform within the oppositional vaccuum left by national), peters has been left to pick over the corpse of his former political allies and coalition partners. and he’s been having a fair crack at it.
of course peters finest work was some years back. he’ll always deserve brownie points for wrestling free health care for nippers out of his national coalition partners and for his (recently re-vindicated) work on the winebox rip off/scandal.
greens (see disclaimer)
The greens have pretty much been just keeping on, keeping on. Not scaring the horses. Their leadership has been missing in action, but that dosen’t matter because the bit players (in the main), have strong roles, and are allowed to get on with it.
Their star of this year has to be locke. he mounted the only credible opposition to the war farce and championed zaoui like no other. turei gets an honourable mention for her reasoned and passionate opposition to the forshore rip off.
Previous high-flyer, (no, that isn’t a pun), tanzcos ,(he who cullen calls in a not affectionate manner ol’ ropehead), has also been missing in action; seduced by the delights of fatherhood; but he should be able to be dragged back in time for the election campaign.
The only nominee for the first annual “How the F##k did they get there and what the F##k are they doing?” award from the greens is kedgley for her occaisonal frighteningly accurate impersonations of the late great Maude Flanders. “But, what about the children!!??”
And kedgley needs to take better advice, and more care in picking her targets. having a go at the simpsons, as she did a while back, is akin to having a go at motherhood.
for a small party the greens have been successful in getting their individual names before the public; (the opposite of Dunne’s mob).
fitzsimons,donald, tanczos, bradford, locke, turei and kedgley(usually); all have enviably high public profiles as reasoned advocates.( Mike ward is known for his fitness and strange choice of transport; but he is known).
That, and the ongoing core support for the greens means they will be back, possibly with more mp’s, and possibly as part of the govt.
and there’s the rub. there are many in the green party who view coalition with what is essentially a centre right labour party as a course fraught with peril and would rather stay in a more independent role.
best case scenario for the greens in coalition with labour is a big enough increase in the number of green mp’s to warrent significant clout in any government, and that they execute their duties in a credible manner and cement their place in the political landscape.
worst case scenario; greens go into full coalition with labour, are hopelessly compromised by unfolding events and cabinet collective responsibility, lose their support base, and are swept out of power and parliament.(see the dummies guide to the alliance party). Take your pick.
one possible ethical minefield alert for the greens must be the combination of the sight of the police salivating over the weed breathalyser introduced in australia and labour’s historical record of eagerness to enact repressive legislation. Being part of a government known for introducing the weed breathlyser here is a long way away from ending cannabis prohibition.
The Christians (Dunnes mob, whatever their name is this year).
Dunne is a man who takes ideological carpetbagging to new heights. if enough three eyed aliens offered to support him he’d agree to parrot their policy and to be their leader in parliament.
dunne is perhaps the purest example of the political whore operating in this parliament. (peters, of course, is runner up).
dunne and peters are the opposite of brash in his inability to play the political game and bullshit in a reasonably credible manner.
you just know that both dunne and peters would say and advocate anything if they thought it gave them enough traction. (see dunnes homophobic rants of late).
for a rich variety of reasons Dunne has to get both the, polly of the year and is the first recipient from his mob to get the first annual “How the f##k did they get there and what the f##k are they doing award, only partly because in an even more spectacular manner than the new zealand first mp’s, dunnes mob are invisible.
go on, name some. all i can think of is the professional virgin and the bible bashing rally car driver.
but, they’ll be back in parliament, (possibly called the future christian shoot’n fish’n and hunt’n party and kebab shop), and there could well be more of them.
although historically this country is notoriously secular in it’s political leanings and inclinations we can expect an echo (albeit small) of the religous rights successes in the american elections.
dunne will be spending his summer break drooling over their successful electioneering tactics. so we’ll be seeing a bit of that good old fashioned good ol’ boy campaigning from dunne.
something for us all to look forward to.
p.s.The rally car driver should get medical advice on his messianic fasting delusions and/or anorexia/bulimia, and i wonder if anyone’s popped the professional virgins cherry yet?, and if so did the earth move for him?, or did he feel soiled and used? Was the popper a man or a woman? So many questions. So few answers.
The maori party;
this has to be the success story of the year. labours hopes for turia to turn into an alemain kopu have been dashed. turia has gone from strength to strength using the brilliantly simple tactic of saying and doing not much at all; and just riding the wave and letting the events unfold.
clark plumped for the white majority on the foreshore issue and has cut maori loose to form what has the potential to be a spectacularly successful political movement and party.
an effective political voice for a large number of our people.
that can only be good news for the political health of new zealand. I reckon the maori party will get most if not all of the maori seats, a decent chunk of the list vote, and will be able to take part in the coalition tango.
turia, of course gets their polly of the year award and they haven’t done enough yet to be eligible for the other award. but that will no doubt change next year when we present the second annual “How the F##k did they get there, and what the F##k are they doing?” awards.
And of course there has to be a pan Ã¢â‚¬â€œparty award for the recent self-outing of the racist and homophobe mpsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ from all parties during the course of the foreshore and civil union debates.
disclaimer; the writer is a former financial member of the green party and has worked as a volunteer for the green party on election campaigns.
he also thought kerry would beat bush and latham would beat howard, so there you go.