Want to cheer yourself down?
Take a look at the Treasury’s newly updated projections for the long-run outlook for the Government’s finances.
What the Treasury officials do is take existing policy settings as given – then make projections about big drivers like the age structure of the population and labour productivity growth.
They assume the tax take relative to the size of the economy will remain about where it is (29 per cent of gross domestic product).
Then they extrapolate forward, to see what happens to big fiscal numbers like the primary balance (revenue minus spending – excluding interest costs) and the size of the public debt.
It is OK for a few years and then it gets ugly.