It seems like we’re overdue for another round of ‘is the presidential race tightening?’
And the answer isn’t totally clear.
Our model thinks Donald Trump has probably narrowed his deficit against Clinton slightly but the difference is modest enough that we’ve wanted to change our answer with every new round of polls.
And in general we’re reluctant to proclaim any turnaround in the race while we still have to squint to see a shift.
But here’s what we think is a little clearer: Trump’s share of the vote has increased as he’s picked up undecided and third-party voters – probably as the result of Republicans’ returning home after a disastrous series of weeks for Trump this month.
Clinton howeve, is at least holding steady and probably also improving her own numbers somewhat.